The Jacksonville Jaguars seem to have found a second home in London, as their recent performances on foreign soil have been remarkable. They secured victories against the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills, revitalizing their season and pushing their record to 3-2. However, a potential issue looms as they must return to Jacksonville for six more games.
The Jaguars represent a significant aspect of the 2023 NFL season: the diminishing significance of home-field advantage. In their two games in Jacksonville, they have yet to claim a victory, with a disappointing 0-2 record. In contrast, their three games played away from Jacksonville resulted in three consecutive wins, underscoring a changing trend in the NFL.
This year, it appears that home-field advantage has all but disappeared in the NFL. Remarkably, after five weeks of play, NFL teams playing at home have recorded more losses than wins.
So far this season, road teams in the NFL have achieved a 41-37 record. If we exclude the two London games, where the Jaguars had a mixed experience playing as both the home and away team, road teams are 40-36.
The last time NFL home teams finished with a losing record was in 2020, albeit under exceptional circumstances, with empty or partially filled stadiums due to COVID-19. However, this was a rare occurrence. In 2019, home teams won only 52% of the time, marking the lowest percentage since 1972, according to SportsOddsHistory.com. Although 2020 was an anomaly, home teams’ winning percentage barely improved in 2021 at 51.1%. It temporarily rebounded to 56.7% in 2022 but seems to have regressed again in 2023.
Various factors, such as more comfortable travel conditions, less energetic crowds in modern, high-end stadiums, and officials paying attention to a long-term trend favoring home teams, seem to have eroded the traditional home-field advantage.
In the realm of sports betting, road teams have held an advantage for quite some time due to point spreads. Since 2004, road teams have held a winning record against the spread in 14 of 19 seasons, as per SportsOddsHistory.com.
Unsurprisingly, road teams are continuing to perform well this season. They boast a 56.2% winning record, with road favorites at 58.6% and road underdogs at 54.6%. This performance might be prompting a reassessment of the value of home-field advantage. Traditionally, NFL teams were granted around three points for home-field advantage on the spread, but that figure has gradually decreased.
The matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers is a prime example of home-field advantage becoming irrelevant. Since relocating from San Diego, the Chargers have garnered one of the NFL’s smallest fan bases, while the Cowboys boast one of the largest. At SoFi Stadium, the focus won’t be on which team has more fans but rather whether the Cowboys’ crowd will reach 80% or more. Oddsmakers have acknowledged the absence of home-field advantage, with the Cowboys being favored by 2 points at BetMGM.
It’s still early in the season, and as weather conditions worsen, home teams might perform better. A sample size of 76 games is not sufficient to declare a trend as permanent, but the evidence so far is compelling.
For decades, it was a given that playing on the road was a challenging task. However, this season, even as a season-ticket holder, your chances of witnessing your favorite team win have dipped below 50-50.
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