Setting Realistic Expectations for Rookie QBs in 2023

Setting Realistic Expectations for Rookie QBs in 2023

Introduction

With the draft in April, four rookie quarterbacks emerged as the talk of the town. However, as they transition into the professional game, there is much yet to be seen from these promising prospects. As the live preseason action unfolds, it is time to establish reasonable expectations for these new quarterbacks.

Increased Pressure on Rookie Quarterbacks

In the past, rookie quarterbacks were often given a two-year window to showcase their potential and develop their skills. However, the landscape has changed, and now, the expectation for rookie quarterbacks to perform efficiently right from the start is higher than ever. With teams eager for immediate results, the patience for a long developmental period is diminishing. As we look ahead five years, how many of these drafted quarterbacks’ teams will still be seeking a new passer?

Projected Expectations for Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Stats:

– 17 starts
– 3,500 passing yards
– 19+ touchdown passes
– Fewer than 12 interceptions
– At least one running back with 40+ receptions
– Completion percentage of 63% or better
– A top-10 snap-to-throw time

For Bryce Young, his success will heavily depend on the Panthers’ offensive scheme. With the guidance of coaches Frank Reich, Thomas Brown, and Josh McCown, Young’s familiarity with the playbook should play to his advantage. Having shown his deep understanding of the game at Alabama, Young should have access to a broader range of plays early on. To facilitate his transition, the Panthers may utilize running back Miles Sanders as a reliable checkdown option in the passing game. Young’s quick-strike ability will be vital for his success at the NFL level.

Projected Expectations for C.J. Stroud

Stats:

– 17 starts
– Better than 60% completion rate
– Positive completion percentage above expectation
– Fewer than 60 rushing attempts

C.J. Stroud’s best-case projection centers on preserving his college performance. Avoiding an over-reliance on rushing will be crucial to gauge his comfort level with the speed and complexity of the NFL game. The transition from college to the NFL will likely decrease the number of open receivers Stroud sees, challenging him to adapt. His ability to navigate the pocket and find reliable receivers within a new offense will be a crucial determinant of his potential as a long-term franchise quarterback.

Projected Expectations for Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Stats:

– More than 2,500 passing yards and 10 touchdowns
– Fewer than 10 fumbles
– More than 5.5 yards per attempt rushing
– Winning the starting job outright in training camp

Anthony Richardson’s performance during training camp will be telling for the Colts’ quarterback competition. While Gardner Minshew brings prior knowledge of the scheme, Richardson’s ability to adapt to the offense while showcasing his natural potential will be critical. Balancing his ground game with his passing abilities will be essential, as explosive rushing could be a game-changer for the Colts. Protecting the ball during crucial opportunities and strategic use of his mobility will strengthen his case as a long-term quarterback option.

Projected Expectations for Will Levis

Stats:

– Fewer than three starts
– A highlight-worthy deep shot during training camp
– Consistent and smooth drop-backs
– Four total situational touchdowns

For Will Levis, the focus this offseason will be on laying the foundation for future success. Embracing the offense and showcasing consistent drop-backs will demonstrate his potential. Levis can make an impact with a strong arm, and a couple of 50+ yard touchdown throws during training camp would create excitement. His big-bodied build may also provide opportunities near the goal line, offering relief to star rusher Derrick Henry.